Austin Housing Inventory 16,751 Active Listings

Austin Housing Inventory 16,751 Active Listings
May 2026 Supply Update

Austin Real Estate Market Update May 18, 2026 | Daily Briefing

Austin Inventory Just Dropped Below Last Year for the First Time in Years, and the Median Price Is Quietly Climbing

The Austin real estate market is sending a signal that deserves close attention today. After more than three years of climbing inventory and softening prices, the supply side of the equation has finally turned. Active residential listings in the austin market now sit at 16,751, which is 1,395 fewer homes than the June 2025 peak of 18,146 and 1.9 percent below where we were one year ago. For a market that has been defined by rising inventory since 2022, this is the first meaningful year-over-year contraction in active listings we have seen in a long time, and it changes the conversation around the austin housing forecast.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for May 18, 2026.

Buyers who have grown comfortable with the idea of endless choice should take note. The supply of homes in the austin housing market is no longer growing. Cumulative new listings from January through May totaled 21,665, which is 13.3 percent below the same period in 2025. That is a sharp pullback in seller activity. At the same time, cumulative pending contracts came in at 18,434, down only 5.8 percent year over year. The gap between new listings and pending contracts has narrowed significantly, with year-to-date difference of just 3,231 compared with 5,422 at this point last year. Fewer sellers are listing, and the homes that do list are finding buyers faster than they have in the last several years.

The Activity Index, which measures pending contracts as a share of total active and pending inventory, tells the same story from a different angle. The current reading of 23.7 percent is up from 22.5 percent a year ago, a 5.0 percent improvement. New construction is leading the way at 32.5 percent, while resale activity sits at 20.58 percent. This is still technically in softening territory for resale homes, but it is moving in the right direction for sellers. The median time from list to pending contract is now just six days across the entire MLS, which means buyers who find a home they want are not sitting on their hands.

Price data is where the story gets most interesting for anyone tracking the austin real estate forecast. The May 2026 median sold price came in at $464,445, which is a 4.8 percent jump over May 2025 and the strongest year-over-year median price gain we have seen during this correction cycle. The average sold price also climbed to $608,563, a 4.4 percent gain year over year. This is a notable shift from the persistent year-over-year price declines that have defined the austin housing market since mid-2022. The market remains 15.6 percent below its May 2022 peak of $550,000, and a full recovery to that peak would still require an 18.4 percent appreciation in median prices, which is projected to take roughly 44 months at the historical 4.912 percent annual compound rate. But the directional change matters.

There is an important nuance to the May price data that readers should understand. Higher-priced homes tend to close earlier in the month, while more affordable homes typically close in the final ten days. That means the May median figure can shift over the next two weeks as more closings are recorded. Still, the magnitude of the year-over-year gain is large enough that it points to real strength in the top of the market. The top 25th percentile of sold homes shows prices up 7.12 percent year over year and price per square foot up 3.68 percent. The bottom 25th percentile shows prices down 1.82 percent and price per square foot down 3.33 percent. The story is clearly bifurcated, with higher-end homes leading the recovery and lower-priced homes still under pressure.

Inventory pressure varies dramatically across the austin metro. Months of Inventory now sits at 5.86 overall, down from 6.10 last May, a 3.9 percent year-over-year improvement. Among the 30 tracked cities, 15 saw Months of Inventory increase year over year and 15 saw it decrease, a perfectly split picture that hides significant local variation. Cedar Park has the tightest resale supply at 2.90 months, followed by Pflugerville at 3.86 and Round Rock at 3.99. On the other end, Dale sits at 35.25 months, Spicewood at 18.64, Smithville at 15.55, and Marble Falls at 13.50. The hyperlocal nature of austin housing has never been clearer.

For real estate agents working this market, the data points to a fundamental change in negotiating dynamics that is just beginning to take hold. Sellers per buyer across the metro is 3.0, with 22 of 30 cities classified as balanced, 3 warm, 4 cool, and only 1 cold. No cities are currently classified as hot, but the warm group includes Cedar Park, Hutto, and Round Rock, which all show resale Months of Inventory under 4.5 months. These are the submarkets where sellers are starting to regain some leverage, and listings priced correctly are moving quickly.

The Absorption Rate, which measures sold homes against active inventory, came in at 20.70 percent for the most recent period. That is well below the historical average of 31.41 percent, so this is not a hot market by any historical measure. The Market Flow Score sits at 4.76 against a long-run average of 6.56. These efficiency metrics are still telling us the austin real estate market has room to recover before it returns to balanced turnover. But both indicators are higher than they were earlier this year, which is consistent with the inventory and price data showing momentum building.

Investors evaluating the austin housing forecast should weigh a few things. The supply correction appears to be real, with cumulative new listings well below last year and active listings finally dropping. New construction continues to absorb at a faster rate than resale, which suggests builders are pricing competitively. Price tier data shows the most efficient absorption in the $200,000 to $400,000 range, where Activity Index readings sit between 26 and 29 percent. Homes priced above $1.5 million continue to face the longest timelines, with Months of Inventory exceeding 11 months in most of those tiers.

The bigger picture for the austin market update today is that fundamentals are quietly shifting in favor of sellers, even though it does not feel that way yet on a day-to-day basis. Inventory is contracting year over year for the first time in this cycle. Pending contracts are up 4.6 percent. The Activity Index is rising. Median prices have posted their first meaningful annual gain in a long time. None of this means the correction is over, and one month of data is not a trend. The austin housing market needs to see four consecutive months of year-over-year median price gains before anyone should officially call this a recovery rather than a stabilization. But May 2026 is the first month where every major indicator is pointing in the same positive direction at once. That is worth watching.

Austin Real Estate Daily Briefing at teamprice.com/austin-daily-real-estate-briefing for the complete archive of daily market data.

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FAQ Section

What is Months of Inventory and what does Austin's number mean for buyers?

Months of Inventory measures how long it would take to sell every active listing on the market at the current sales pace, assuming no new homes are added. Austin's current reading of 5.86 months is down from 6.10 in May 2025, a 3.9 percent year-over-year improvement that reflects firming demand and slower new listing growth. For buyers, this number means austin remains broadly in the neutral zone where neither side has a strong advantage, but the trend is moving toward sellers as inventory tightens. Local conditions matter enormously here, since Cedar Park sits at just 2.90 months while cities like Dale and Spicewood show more than 15 months of supply.

Are Austin new construction homes selling faster than resale homes?

Yes, and the gap is significant. New construction in the austin market has an Activity Index of 32.5 percent, which places it firmly in the expansion phase, while resale homes sit at 20.58 percent, which is still in softening territory. This tells us that builders are pricing competitively and moving inventory at a faster pace than the resale market, where sellers often hold out for higher prices. Buyers shopping new construction will find more motivated sellers and more incentives, while resale shoppers should expect longer negotiations. For agents, this divide is critical to understanding which segment of the market is moving and which is stuck.

Which Austin suburbs have the best value for homebuyers right now?

Buyers looking for value should pay attention to suburbs where prices have dropped meaningfully but fundamentals remain strong. Marble Falls leads the metro with median prices down 17.8 percent year over year, followed by Lockhart at down 10.9 percent and Driftwood at down 9.8 percent. Elgin and San Marcos are also showing double-digit declines from prior peaks while maintaining reasonable inventory levels. These submarkets offer entry points that have not existed in years, though buyers should weigh longer market times and higher Months of Inventory readings before assuming a quick resale exit.

What is the absorption rate in Austin and why does it matter?

The Absorption Rate measures how much of the available inventory actually sells in a given period, calculated as sold homes divided by active listings. Austin's current absorption rate is 20.70 percent, which is well below the historical average of 31.41 percent and tells us we are still in a slower-moving market than the long-run norm. This metric matters because it captures the real velocity of the market in a single number, blending supply and demand into a meaningful signal. When absorption climbs above 30 percent, sellers typically gain leverage and prices firm up, while readings below 20 percent point to a buyer-favorable environment with pricing pressure.

How does the Austin housing market compare to the national average?

The austin housing market is in a more advanced stage of its correction than most national markets, having peaked earlier in 2022 and corrected harder than the country as a whole. Austin's median sold price is down 15.6 percent from peak, while the national median has held closer to peak levels with smaller declines. However, austin is also showing earlier signs of recovery, with the 4.8 percent year-over-year median price gain in May 2026 outpacing what most metros are reporting. This positions austin as a leading indicator for where other Sunbelt markets may head over the next twelve to eighteen months, especially those that experienced similar pandemic-era price surges.

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