Austin Real Estate Market Update

Austin Real Estate Market Update – February 23, 2026

According to the Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing dated Monday, February 23, 2026, active residential listings now sit at 13,450, which is up 11.1 percent year over year from 12,101 at this time last year. While that sounds like a surge in supply, context matters. The previous high was 18,146 listings on June 30, 2025, meaning we are still 4,696 listings below last summer’s peak. Inventory has come down meaningfully from the worst levels of oversupply, yet remains elevated compared to early 2025.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for February 23, 2026.

Nearly half of all active listings, 48.3 percent, have had at least one price drop. That is a powerful signal in the current Austin housing market. Sellers are still adjusting expectations. When almost one out of every two listings has reduced price, it confirms that pricing power is limited and that buyers have leverage in many segments. This is not panic selling, but it is steady recalibration.

Breaking down inventory further, 4,001 of the active listings are new construction and 9,449 are resale. Builders continue to represent a significant share of supply. That helps explain why new construction shows stronger absorption metrics than resale in some categories. Builders can buy down rates and offer incentives, which creates competitive pressure on resale sellers who are pricing against both the market and incentives.

Cumulative new listings from January through February total 6,789. That is down 13.2 percent year over year but still 10.5 percent above the long term average. Fewer homeowners are choosing to list compared to last year, yet supply remains structurally higher than historical norms. This mix tells us that the Austin housing forecast is not being driven by a flood of new sellers in 2026. Instead, it is the carryover of elevated inventory from 2024 and 2025 that continues to shape the market.

Pending listings are at 4,139, up 3.4 percent year over year from 4,002. That is a modest improvement in demand. New construction accounts for 1,638 of those pendings, while resale makes up 2,501. On the surface, demand is stabilizing. However, cumulative pendings from January through February total 5,670, which is down 14.0 percent year over year and 5.8 percent below the long term average. That means buyer activity has improved slightly in recent weeks, but year to date momentum remains soft compared to both last year and historical norms.

The Activity Index, which measures pending listings as a percentage of active listings, is currently 23.5 percent compared to 24.9 percent last year. That is a 5.3 percent decline in market activity relative to supply. For resale only, the Activity Index sits at 20.93 percent, placing much of the resale market in what can best be described as a softening phase. Historically, expansion phases above 30 percent indicate strong demand and rising prices. Today, most resale submarkets are well below that threshold. This reinforces the broader Austin real estate forecast that pricing pressure remains tilted toward buyers in many areas.

The monthly new listing to pending ratio is 0.69. The year to date ratio is 0.72, compared to a 25 year average of 0.82. When this ratio falls below its long term average, it signals that new supply is outpacing demand. Year to date, there are 1,119 more new listings than pending contracts. That imbalance helps explain why price reductions remain elevated and why sellers must compete aggressively.

Months of inventory stands at 4.77, up from 4.23 one year ago, a 12.8 percent increase. In practical terms, this means that at the current pace of sales, it would take nearly five months to sell all available homes if no new listings came on the market. For resale only, many cities fall into either a neutral zone or buyer advantage range. While this is not a severe oversupply environment, it clearly is not a seller dominated market. The Austin housing market has transitioned from extreme seller conditions in 2021 and early 2022 to a more balanced to buyer leaning environment.

Sales volume further confirms this transition. There were 1,858 sold properties in February, and cumulative sold properties from January through February total 3,543. That is down 8.6 percent year over year, yet still 6.7 percent above the long term average. In other words, activity is lower than last year but not collapsing relative to longer history. When adjusting for population, cumulative sold per 100,000 residents is 133, down 10.5 percent year over year and 23.8 percent below average. On a per Realtor basis, sales are 201 per 1,000 Realtors, down 2.3 percent year over year and 20.9 percent below average. This tells us that transaction volume per agent remains compressed, even as the broader Austin housing market shows signs of stabilization.

Pricing is where the reset becomes most visible. The average sold price in February is 553,203 dollars. In May 2022, the average sold price peaked at 681,939 dollars. That represents an 18.88 percent decline from peak, or roughly 129,000 dollars lower. The median sold price today is 430,000 dollars, down from a peak of 550,000 dollars in May 2022. That is a 21.82 percent drop from peak, or 120,000 dollars lower. These are meaningful corrections, and they confirm that the Austin housing forecast of normalization through price adjustment has largely played out over the past three years.

Interestingly, when tracking the median sold price versus 36 months prior, the current reading is negative 1.15 percent. That means prices today are only slightly below where they were three years ago. In practical terms, the pandemic surge has been mostly unwound in real terms, bringing valuations back toward long term trend.

Looking forward, if we assume the current median of 430,000 dollars represents a bottom and apply the 25 year compound appreciation rate of 4.602 percent, it would take approximately 67 months, or until August 2031, to return to the prior peak around 550,280 dollars. This projection is not a guarantee, but it gives perspective. Real estate cycles correct quickly but recover slowly. The Austin real estate forecast from here is more likely a gradual grind higher rather than a sharp rebound.

The market is also bifurcated by price tier. In the bottom 25th percentile, prices are down 2.82 percent year over year and price per square foot is down 5.94 percent. In the top 25th percentile, prices are actually up 3.49 percent year over year, though price per square foot is slightly down 0.86 percent. Higher end properties are holding value better in nominal terms, while entry level and lower price segments face more pressure. This mix shift helps explain why average prices can behave differently from median metrics.

City level data shows that only 6 cities are up year over year in median sold price, while 24 are down. The Home Value Index indicates that 73.3 percent of cities are still overvalued relative to long term fundamentals, 23.3 percent are fairly valued, and 6.7 percent are undervalued. That distribution suggests that while major corrections have occurred, some segments may still face incremental adjustment.

The absorption rate, defined as sold divided by active listings, is 14.96 percent. The historical average is 31.54 percent. This is one of the clearest indicators of current market efficiency. When fewer than 15 percent of listings are selling in a given period, turnover is slow and competition among sellers increases. The Market Flow Score is 3.25 compared to a historical average of 6.58, further reinforcing that the Austin housing market is operating below its long term velocity.

For buyers, this environment offers negotiating power, choice, and time. Nearly half of listings have reduced price. Inventory is materially higher than pre correction levels. Sellers who price aggressively and align with current demand are still moving properties, but buyers are not chasing the market.

For sellers, pricing discipline is critical. The data is clear. Homes that are priced correctly are selling, but overpricing leads to reductions and extended days on market. For investors, the reset in median pricing combined with a slower but stable demand base may present selective opportunities, especially in submarkets that are moving from overvalued to fairly valued.

In summary, today’s Austin market update reflects a housing market that has corrected significantly from its 2022 peak and is now stabilizing with moderate inventory, cautious demand, and disciplined pricing. The broader Austin real estate forecast points toward slow normalization rather than rapid appreciation. The market is no longer overheated, but it is also not frozen. It is recalibrated.

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FAQ Section

Is the Austin housing market still declining in 2026?

The Austin housing market has already experienced a significant correction from its 2022 peak. The median sold price is now 430,000 dollars, down more than 21 percent from the high. However, current data shows stabilization rather than continued sharp decline. Active listings are up year over year, but well below last summer’s peak, and pending activity has modestly improved. The Austin real estate forecast suggests slower movement and normalization, not another dramatic drop.

Is it a buyer’s market in Austin right now?

With 4.77 months of inventory and nearly half of listings showing at least one price drop, buyers have meaningful leverage. The Activity Index at 23.5 percent indicates softening conditions, particularly in resale. While not an extreme buyer market, conditions favor negotiation. Buyers who are patient and data driven are in a stronger position than they were during the 2021 to 2022 surge.

How far have Austin home prices fallen from the peak?

The average sold price is down 18.88 percent from its May 2022 peak, and the median sold price is down 21.82 percent. That translates to roughly 120,000 dollars lower at the median level. This correction has brought pricing closer to long term trend levels. In many ways, the excess appreciation from the pandemic era has largely been unwound.

What does the Austin housing forecast look like long term?

If prices grow at the 25 year compound rate of 4.602 percent annually, it could take until 2031 to return to the previous median peak. That projection assumes the current median represents a bottom. The Austin real estate forecast is therefore one of gradual appreciation rather than rapid recovery. Long term fundamentals remain intact, but short term growth will likely be modest.

Are homes still selling in Austin?

Yes, homes are still selling, with 1,858 properties closing in February and 3,543 sold year to date. However, transaction volume is down 8.6 percent year over year. The absorption rate of 14.96 percent indicates slower turnover compared to historical norms. Homes that are priced in line with current market conditions are moving, while overpriced listings are experiencing reductions and longer market times.

Have a Question or Want to Dive Deeper?

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