A surge of inventory and slower buyer momentum are reshaping Austin real estate into a market that now rewards precision in pricing over optimism.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for November 18, 2025.
Austin real estate continues to transition away from the aggressive pricing dynamics seen during the pandemic peak. As of Tuesday, November 18, 2025, there are 15,420 active residential listings across the Austin-area MLS. That is a 14.4 percent increase from this time last year and still below the June 2025 peak of 18,146 but trending upward. The increase in available housing inventory tells us that Austin housing is moving deeper into buyer-advantage territory. Buyers now have more options and leverage, while sellers must compete not only against each other but also against new construction, which maintains a stronger absorption pace.
A key indicator driving today’s market update is that 58.1 percent of all active listings have already taken at least one price reduction. That level of markdown activity signals that sellers are reacting to feedback from the market rather than leading it. In 2024, agents could rely on quick showings and limited competition. This year, the supply side outpaces demand, and buyers no longer feel the urgency to move. At the same time, cumulative new listings year to date total 46,850, which is 3.2 percent higher than last year and 20.7 percent above Austin's long-term average. That means the market is pouring in new supply at a faster pace than buyers can absorb it.
Pending listings are slightly lower year over year, down 1.3 percent, totaling 3,913 compared with 3,964 last November. While this may seem marginal, the larger concern is how this affects overall balance. The Activity Index has fallen from 22.7 percent in 2024 to 20.2 percent today, an 11 percent decline in overall movement. New construction holds a stronger 27.63 percent Activity Index, offering incentives and move-in-ready options that appeal to today’s price-sensitive buyers. Resale inventory is trailing at 17.12 percent, placing it firmly in the contraction and danger zone phase. More than half of the market is now in a condition where supply builds and pricing pressure intensifies unless sellers adjust quickly.
The current new listing to pending ratio is 0.78, and year to date that ratio sits at 0.72. By comparison, Austin’s 25-year historical average is 0.82. A lower ratio signals that listings are outpacing accepted contracts, which means inventory is building faster than it is being absorbed. This is consistent with what we see on the ground: more showings without offers, more price adjustments, and extended days on market. Months of inventory rose from 4.76 in November 2024 to 5.47 today, a 15 percent increase. For resale homes specifically, 210 to 267 days on market represents buyer advantage and more than 270 days indicates buyer control. Nearly one third of the market is already sitting in the buyer advantage segment, and a growing share has pushed into full buyer control.
Sold properties totaled 2,272 most recently, and cumulative sales from January through November sit at 27,938. That count is down 3.1 percent year over year but still almost eight percent above the long-term average. What this means is that homes are still selling, just not at pricing levels supported by 2021 and early 2022. Median sold price is currently $450,000, which represents an 18.18 percent, or $100,000, drop from the May 2022 median peak of $550,000. Average sold price sits at $599,409, about 12.1 percent below peak. While price declines have stabilized somewhat, the data suggests we are still working through the correction phase.
Based on historical compounding appreciation of 4.981 percent per year, Austin housing would need approximately 53 months to return to peak value if today’s median of $450,000 represents the bottom. That timeline places the projected return near March 2030, assuming steady growth without market disruption. This aligns with long-range Austin real estate forecast models, which suggest normalization rather than rapid recovery. For investors, this implies a window of opportunity to acquire assets during a value correction period, especially in areas where months of inventory are highest and seller concessions are increasing.
The upper quartile of the market is still outperforming the lower tier. Top 25th percentile prices are up 5.69 percent year over year, with dollar per square foot up 3.77 percent. Conversely, the bottom 25th percentile is nearly flat, up only 0.78 percent, with a slight decrease in price per square foot. This supports the narrative that higher-income buyers remain active while affordability challenges are weighing down the mid and lower-tier segments. Eight of Austin’s monitored cities show year-over-year price growth in median sold values, while twenty-one are still declining.
Absorption rate, calculated as sold listings divided by active listings, is currently at 16.59 percent. Historically this ratio averages 31.70 percent. The gap between where we are now and long-term norms indicates that the market is functioning at roughly half its typical turnover rate. The Market Flow Score reinforces this trend: at 4.74 versus a long-term average of 6.59, Austin housing is operating below efficiency standards. Inventory is moving, but not optimally. Listings are stacking up, and buyers are pacing their decisions because they know more homes are likely to hit the market next month.
For buyers, this Austin market update sends a clear message. There is meaningful leverage to negotiate. With nearly six out of ten listings already reduced in price and more inventory entering monthly, buyers have time and choice. This environment favors buyers who structure offers based on local absorption rates and competitive properties rather than list prices alone. It is especially advantageous for buyers looking in areas with excess supply and limited pending activity.
For sellers, pricing discipline is critical. Hoping the market will “get better next spring” risks getting left behind as competing inventory continues to increase. Selling successfully in this environment means pricing to current market velocity, not historical comparisons. Sellers must be prepared to make condition improvements or offer financial concessions to stay in the competitive range. New construction is still capturing more attention, so resale listings need to present a stronger value case through pricing or incentives.
Real estate agents should use today’s numbers to guide every pricing and negotiation conversation. The difference between closing in 45 days versus sitting for 120 often comes down to alignment with market velocity and absorption metrics. Agents who position their listings based on today’s conditions will win faster and protect seller equity better than those who lead with hope.
For investors, Austin real estate forecast data points to a multi-year buying opportunity as values stabilize below peak levels. Acquiring assets before appreciation resumes offers the potential for long-term return, particularly knowing that historic appreciation trends still support future growth. Monitoring population growth trends alongside affordability metrics will help identify the optimal timing for scale-up strategies.
Overall, this Austin housing update shows a market that is recalibrating, not collapsing. Inventory is higher, demand is softer, and pricing pressure remains, but sales volume still exceeds historical norms. As long as mortgage rates remain elevated, buyers will maintain leverage and sellers will need to adapt quickly. If rates improve, some of the backlog could clear, but until then, the path of least resistance is compression on pricing, not acceleration.
Austin real estate continues to move through the correction phase logically. The next six to twelve months will be defined by pricing efficiency, execution strategy, and agent skill. The agents who thrive will be those who lead with data and negotiate with clarity.
